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Kentucky Derby 136: Faves, Sleepers & Dogs

Kentucky Derby

Will Baffert Be
Lookin At Roses?

One Great Season

Picking the Kentucky Derby is like picking the NCAA Tournament in that your co-worker who knows the least about sports has just as much of a chance to win the office pool as you do.

Many factors contribute to a favorite missing the board entirely or a longshot winning the whole thing.

If Giacomo was such a good horse in the weeks leading up to the 2005 race, he wouldn't have gone off at 50-1. Same with Mine That Bird, who won at the same price just last year. Had I had the courage to place such a ridiculous wager either time, I'd have written this story from a beach, not freelancing it from Louisville for you fine people.

There are people who spend their lives -– and livelihoods –- picking horses and they enjoy a decent success rate. I am not one of them.

That's why, instead of telling you which horse will win, I'll give you four safe bets, four value bets and four horses to stay away from (read: bet them too if you want the heaviest of payouts.)

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